"Bad air day" forecasts WRONG Half The Time... INTENTIONALLY!
DUNE FACTS analyzed nearly a year of Nipomo Mesa "dust" air forecasts and found a mathematical bias high enough to create 100 fictional "bad air day" forecasts per year. One hundred fictional days to alarm the public and make Nipomo Mesa residents think they are breathing bad air (because of off-road use of our local dunes). In truth, a full 48% of the "bad" forecasts turned out to be "Good" days. The stunner? THE AIR DISTRICT ADMITS DOING IT ON PURPOSE!
Quotes (see the video):
Larry Allen, Air Pollution Control Officer:
"We have gone on the side of conservatism, and gone slightly down below, so that we can forecast a violation of the state standard using the AQI system. And so, that's what, and... I actually kind of like the results that he [Rice] showed because... you know, we're pretty darn close in our forecast. So that explains the difference."
Bruce Gibson, Chair of the Board:
"Interesting that within that blizzard of numbers was a five point offset which is roughly the five point offset that you decided. Pretty good."
Larry Allen:
"That's the five point offset that we picked."
In my presentation to the APCD Board (see video), I demonstrate that the APCD's AQI forecasts for Nipomo are consistently 5.8 points above reality. Additionally, I demonstrate evidence that the forecasts are often INTENTIONALLY and artificially held above 50 (Yellow/Moderate).
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There's more: The air district only manipulates Nipomo forecasts. Air forecasts in the rest of the county apparently do not need "fixing". Or, perhaps the air district has invested greatly in their questionable "dune dust" study and is looking to boost political support from the public by putting forth doctored air data. Whatever the reason, it is unacceptable to provide the public with anything less than truthful air forecasts.
CONCLUSIONS:
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48% of "Yellow/Moderate" forecasts end up being "Green/Good" days.
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July 9 to July 26 (18 days): Out of 17 "Yellow" forecasts only 2 days ended up actually being "Yellow".
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Sep 20, 2010 to July 26: 79 "Yellow" forecasts turned out to be "Green" days (only 9 Green days changed to Yellow).
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AT THE ABOVE RATES: NEARLY 100 YELLOW FORECASTS PER YEAR ARE REALLY GREEN DAYS.
FURTHER CONCERNS:
(1) These forecasts are released to the public via the EPA's AIRNow website and subscriber email system where they are purported to be AQI forecasts. In fact, they are not AQI forecasts, they are a modified invention of Larry Allen. This practice of manipulating forecasts appears fraudulent. If one uses the online AIRNow calculator to convert AQI numbers back into pollution concentration they result is just plain wrong because the APCD is hijacking the data. I have contacted the EPA to look into the matter.
(2) Whether or not to act conservatively with forecasts is not an area where Larry Allen gets to make unilateral decisions without involving the informed consensus of the APCD Board and the public. The same goes with any schools involved in the air district's educational programs. What is the APCD teaching our kids? Flat lies. Children deserve to know and learn facts in school.
(3) As to the contention that California's air standards are lower---there is no separate California standard for PM2.5, which is the far and away predominantly reported AQI value in Nipomo. How does Larry Allen explain manipulating AQI values for PM2.5? One hundred fake 'Yellow' predictions a year is 100 lies from the APCD causing unfounded alarm and controversy.
(4) By manufacturing alarming forecasts the APCD positions themselves up to be the solution, ensuring their authority and budget empire continues to grow. And if dunes are closed, I suppose the APCD will then lower the AQI forecasts to look as if they were the solution.
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General info about the EPA AQI (Air Quality Index):
http://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=aqibasics.aqi
See also: Cal Coast News: County official admits to manipulating air quality forecasts